MANILA, Philippines – Signal No. 2 was raised for portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela due to Typhoon Ofel (Usagi) for the first time late Wednesday morning, November 13.
Meanwhile, the forecast track of Tropical Storm Man-yi — which remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) — has shifted as of 11 am on Wednesday.
Ofel
Ofel was located 485 kilometers east northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte, or 610 kilometers east of Infanta, Quezon, at 10 am on Wednesday. It is moving west northwest over the Philippine Sea at a slightly slower 20 kilometers per hour from the previous 25 km/h.
The typhoon maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h and gustiness of up to 150 km/h.
In a press conference past 11 am, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the areas listed below are under tropical cyclone wind signals due to Ofel. Wind signals are raised in advance to give affected areas time to prepare for winds from a tropical cyclone.
Signal No. 2
Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property
- eastern part of mainland Cagayan (Baggao, Peñablanca, Gattaran, Gonzaga, Lal-lo, Santa Ana)
- eastern part of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)
Signal No. 1
Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property
- Batanes
- Babuyan Islands
- rest of mainland Cagayan
- rest of Isabela
- Quirino
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Apayao
- Kalinga
- Abra
- Mountain Province
- eastern part of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista, Aguinaldo, Banaue, Mayoyao, Hingyon, Hungduan)
- Ilocos Norte
- northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran)
The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Ofel is Signal No. 4.
Aside from winds, Ofel is bringing significant rain — initially moderate to heavy in three provinces on Wednesday, but worsening starting Thursday, November 14.
Wednesday noon, November 13, to Thursday noon, November 14
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): Cagayan, Isabela, Catanduanes
Thursday noon, November 14, to Friday noon, November 15
- Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Cagayan, Isabela
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Abra, Batanes, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Ilocos Sur
Friday noon, November 15, to Saturday noon, November 16
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Abra, Ilocos Sur
In the next 48 hours, there is also a moderate to high risk of “life-threatening” storm surges reaching 1 to 3 meters in Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora.
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PAGASA said Ofel could make landfall in Cagayan or Isabela while at its peak intensity on Thursday afternoon. Afterwards, it may “emerge over the Luzon Strait” on Friday, November 15, turn more north northwest while slowing down, then behave “erratically” during the weekend.
But the weather bureau reiterated that the track of the typhoon may still change, citing two updated scenarios that are emerging as of Wednesday morning:
- “a northwestward track until Friday before turning west southwest during the weekend”
- “a slightly recurving track to the right of the present track forecast”
Sea conditions will worsen in the next 24 hours as Ofel continues to move closer to the country.
Up to very rough or high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)
- Eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan – waves up to 10 meters high
- Seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora – waves up to 8 meters high
- Seaboard of Babuyan Islands; remaining seaboard of mainland Cagayan – waves up to 7 meters high
- Seaboard of northern Aurora – waves up to 6 meters high
Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)
- Seaboard of Batanes – waves up to 4 meters high
- Northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes and Polillo Islands; remaining seaboard of Aurora; seaboards of Camarines Norte and northern Quezon; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur – waves up to 3.5 meters high
Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)
- Northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte; eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon including the rest of Polillo Islands, Albay, and Sorsogon; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar – waves up to 2.5 meters high
- Remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region; seaboard of Kalayaan Islands; eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur and Eastern Samar; remaining seaboard of Catanduanes – waves up to 2 meters high
Ofel is the Philippines’ 15th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the third for November, after Marce (Yinxing) and Nika (Toraji), which both peaked as typhoons and pummeled Northern Luzon.
Man-yi or potential Pepito
Meanwhile, Man-yi was last spotted 1,965 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas at 10 am on Wednesday, still moving west southwest at a relatively fast 30 km/h.
PAGASA again explained that Man-yi’s southwest movement in the next 12 hours is being influenced by a high pressure area over the south of Japan. But the tropical storm is seen to turn generally westward while approaching the PAR eastern boundary.
It may enter PAR by Thursday evening, and would be given the local name Pepito.
Man-yi slightly weakened on Wednesday morning, with its maximum sustained winds easing from 75 km/h to 65 km/h. Its gustiness also eased from 90 km/h to 80 km/h.
But Man-yi is projected to intensify into a severe tropical storm by Thursday morning, and into a typhoon by Thursday afternoon or evening.
PAGASA added that it is not ruling out rapid intensification, and Man-yi could even reach super typhoon category before hitting land.
Man-yi’s forecast track as of 11 am on Wednesday has considerably shifted downward, compared to the forecast track released at 5 am.
It was previously seen to make landfall in Northern Luzon or Central Luzon by Sunday afternoon or evening, November 17. But the new forecast track indicates possible landfall in Southern Luzon, particularly Bicol, as early as Saturday, November 16.
Given the uncertainty and the likelihood of further changes in Man-yi’s track, however, any of the areas along the eastern coast of Luzon, and even Eastern Visayas, could be the potential landfall site.
PAGASA Deputy Administrator for Research and Development Marcelino Villafuerte II also emphasized that the potential landfall site of a tropical cyclone should not be the sole focus.
“Tandaan po natin na ang bagyo ay hindi isang tuldok lang…. Malawak ang kanyang sirkulasyon,” Villafuerte said in Wednesday’s press conference.
“‘Wag po sana na ang focus lang ay kung saan ‘yung sentro ng bagyo dadaan, but rather i-consider po natin ‘yung kalawakan [nito],” he added.
(Let’s remember that a tropical cyclone isn’t just a dot. It has a wide circulation. Don’t just focus on where the center of the tropical cyclone will pass through, but rather consider its vast size.)
The weather bureau told the public that while “it is too early to exactly determine the specific areas to be affected by certain hazards” from Man-yi, “most areas in Luzon are at risk” of heavy rain, severe winds, and possibly storm surges.
Man-yi may also cause hazardous sea conditions in the eastern seaboard of the Philippines starting late Friday or on Saturday. – Rappler.com