For the first time in years, Rodrigo Duterte finds himself in a situation that’s both familiar and peculiar: a run for Davao City mayor, and against a Nograles at that. But this time the mighty Duterte clan has found itself on the opposite side of the national ruling coalition.
Duterte, 79, is re-entering local politics three years after stepping down from the highest office in the land. The former president is running for mayor alongside his younger son, incumbent local chief executive Sebastian “Baste” Duterte, who will be sliding down to vice mayor.
A bunch of other Dutertes are seeking office in Davao City. There’s older son, re-electionist 1st District Representative Paolo “Pulong” Duterte. Pulong’s son, incumbent Barangay Buhangin Chairman Omar Duterte, is gunning to represent the city’s 2nd District in Congress. Another of Pulong’s sons, Rodrigo “Rigo” Duterte III, is running for city councilor in the same district as his father.
Should all five Duterte men win in the posts they seek in 2025, it would mean yet another three years of the clan capturing Davao City politics — the patriarch as head of the executive, son and grandson as members of the local legislative body, and another son and another grandson representing the city in Congress.
It’s a chokehold that another equally prominent clan is seeking to challenge come May 2025: recently resigned Civil Service Commission (CSC) chairperson Karlo Nograles, one-time Cabinet Secretary and spokesperson of president Duterte, filed his candidacy for mayor. What he seeks to challenge is the Duterte’s clan’s hold on city hall since 1988 — there’s only been three years that a Duterte was not mayor, from 1998 to 2001, when the older Duterte served as congressman.
Another Nograles, Karlo’s younger sister, incumbent PBA Representative Margarita “Migs” Nograles, is eyeing to replace Pulong Duterte as the city’s 1st District representative in Congress.
Ramon Belleno, Davao resident and head of the political science program at the Western Institute of Technology, said the 2025 local polls aren’t just a showdown between the Duterte and Nograles clans for city hall and the 1st District.
In a way, the Davao City local polls is a microcosm of the bigger national political battle in 2025, as clans and individuals re-arrange in an election that will be a referendum on not just the incumbent Marcos administration and coalition, but on a nationwide Duterte magic that’s gripped the nation since the swashbuckling mayor won the 2016 presidential poll.
The showdowns in Davao
The Nograles clan will not be facing the Dutertes alone. They’ve coalesced with the Al-ag and Garcia clans, also members of the Davao political elite.
The Al-ags, long regarded as political underlings, are now among those leading a rebellion against the Duterte political dynasty. The three families — the Nograleses, Al-ags, and Garcias — represent a formidable attempt to break the Dutertes’ decades-long grip on the city.
Four members of the Al-ag clan were booted out of the Duterte-led local party Hugpong sa Tawong Lungsod (HTL) on October 7 or the same day Baste Duterte filed his candidacy for vice mayor.
Councilors Wilberto and Bernard Al-ag, along with barangay chairpersons Lilibeth and Bernadette Al-ag, were expelled for their ties and support to the Tingog Partylist, a group aligned with House Speaker Martin Romualdez. Outgoing Tingog Representative Yeddah Romualdez, chairperson of the powerful House accounts committee, is the wife of the House Speaker. Andrew Julian Romualdez, Speaker Romualdez and Representative Romualdez’s son, is the first nominee of Tingog in 2025.
“Their involvement in activities promoting the interests of the Tingog Partylist, rather than the Hugpong agenda, constitutes a direct violation and betrayal of the Party’s rules and principles,” read part of HTL’s announcement.
Their expulsion is a symptom of a growing rift within Davao’s political arena, as old alliances fray and new power struggles emerge.
Councilor Bernard Al-ag will be running for vice mayor alongside mayoral aspirant Karlo Nograles. In the 2nd District, Javier Campos of the politically entrenched Garcia family is up against Omar Duterte. In Davao’s 3rd District, Duterte loyalist and incumbent Representative Isidro Ungab faces a stiff challenge from Wilberto Al-ag, signaling the Al-ags’ determination to seize political ground.
The alliances forming against the Dutertes are notable, if not historic.
For years, the Nograleses, Garcias, and Al-ags occupied their own corners of Davao’s political world, none strong enough to contest the Duterte supremacy. Now, sensing vulnerability in the once-mighty Duterte brand, they’re rallying together.
For Belleno, the Duterte-led HTL’s decision to kick the Al-ags out and to “close ranks” or be exclusive is indicative of how Rodrigo Duterte, despite being the mayoralty bet, is no longer truly in control of the clan’s political movements.
That Rodrigo Duterte himself is running, that Baste is sliding down to vice mayor, and that incumbent Vice Mayor J. Melchor B. Quitain Jr. is not seeking re-election is an indication of how precarious their political standing is, said Belleno.
Belleno, who also consults for politicians or would-be politicians in the city, describes it as “panic mode” for the Duterte clan. “Kung confident sila na malakas na malakas sila, eh di dapat pinatakbo pa rin nila si Vice Mayor Quitain,” he told Rappler in an interview. (If they are confident that they are formidable, then they should still have fielded Vice Mayor Quitain.)
Belleno also posited a scenario: old man Duterte can run and win, then resign as Davao mayor. Baste, assuming he wins as vice mayor, would then go up and take on the mayorship. That’s where Duterte’s grandson Rigo comes in — assuming he makes it as first councilor, he could then assume the vice mayoral post to replace his uncle.
The problem, said Belleno, is that the power of the Dutertes is centered — and dependent — on its patriarch, who’s about to turn 80. “Kung tagalang malakas ‘yung dynasty nila, they should be confident na tumakbo si Baste against Karlo,” he said. (If theirs is a really strong dynasty, then they should be confident in fielding Baste against Karlo.)
Decades in power
To better understand just how long the Duterte clan has ruled Davao City, consider this: there is a generation of adults (and, therefore, voters), who’ve only known a Mayor Duterte. When Rodrigo Duterte hit his term limit, Sara Duterte stepped in. When he decided to run for the presidency, it was Sara Duterte who took over city hall. When Sara was elected Vice President, it was younger brother Baste who took over as mayor.
Administrations and would-be national candidates almost always make it a point to court Duterte’s favor during national polls. After all, his endorsement and help doesn’t only secure Davao City; his influence extends onto the rest of the once-united Davao region.
In 2022, one-time Duterte ally Ruy Elias Lopez tried to challenge the younger Baste’s mayoral run. The younger Duterte swept the race, however, getting over 597,000 votes to Lopez’ 67,000 votes.
But for Lopez then, the challenge was about giving Davaoeños a choice. It’s also why development worker Mags Maglana tried to challenge Paolo Duterte for the 1st District congressional post.
Lopez, whose father was once mayor of the city, was also part of an election that proved consequential for Davao City. In 2010, Lopez was the vice mayoralty bet of the late Prospero Nograles, who was challenging Sara Duterte’s first attempt at becoming mayor of Davao. Lopez went head-to-head against Rodrigo Duterte himself.
Nograles, the father of Karlo and Migs, lost the mayoralty run. Lopez lost to the older Duterte as well. Duterte biographer Earl Parreño said that election “sealed Duterte’s hold on Davao City politics.”
In 2025, Lopez is gunning for the post he and his father once occupied: 3rd District representative. That means he’s running against both Wilberto Al-ag, allied with Nograles, and Ungab, allied with Duterte.
Tensions between the Dutertes and the Nograleses seemingly simmered down in 2016 — the latter backed Rodrigo Duterte’s Malacañang dreams. Karlo was then appointed to the Duterte Cabinet, as Cabinet Secretary, in 2018. Before the Duterte administration ended, he was appointed chairperson of the Civil Service Commission for a term that would have ended in 2029 yet.
Asked about his decision to run against his late father’s long-time nemesis and his former boss, and the perceptions that he was being “ungrateful” or lacked the “utang na loob” after serving under Duterte, Nograles told ANC in an interview:
“Utang na loob po natin sa ating kababayan ang makapagbigay ng choice, pagdating sa election (What we owe our countrymen is to give them a choice when it comes to the elections). That’s really what we’re doing. We are giving the people of Davao City a choice, a choice for change,” he said.
Nograles’ priorities include finally modernizing the city’s services — from business permits to IDs.
Belleno, a Davao City resident, said there had been complaints about basic city services: flooding, traffic, and even peace and order. It doesn’t help that the Dutertes no longer control or have sway over the local police force in the city.
The bigger picture
While Nograles is running as an independent candidate, it would be difficult to imagine the ruling coalition — a mix of practically all major parties, save for Duterte’s regional parties and PDP-Laban — not throwing its support, even if unofficially, behind the Nograles coalition.
Representative Migs Nograles, after all, is House Assistant Majority Leader and among the most prominent allies of the Marcos administration in Congress.
The Nograles challenge in both city hall and the three districts of the city also comes as the vaunted Marcos-Duterte alliance, forged out of convenience in 2022, has finally unraveled.
Vice President Sara Duterte, in a press conference on October 18, went on about how the Marcos clan used her to win in 2022, openly criticizing President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. for supposedly not knowing how to do his job.
Meanwhile, the Vice President is the subject of a House probe into alleged misuse of intelligence funds and, in her one words, could be dragged into another House investigation into the drug war of her father. As the Duterte clan scrambles to find its place in national politics, so goes its effort to keep its hold locally.
The question looming over Davao City: Is this a genuine shift in the city’s political landscape, or just another ripple in the Duterte dynasty’s dominant rule?
The stakes are high, and the outcome will determine whether the Dutertes’ grip on Davao is truly loosening — or if these challengers will splinter under the weight of their shared ambition. – Rappler.com