MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Ofel (Usagi) slightly intensified over the Philippine Sea on Tuesday morning, November 12, while Severe Tropical Storm Nika (Toraji) was already about to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Ofel’s maximum sustained winds increased from 75 kilometers per hour to 85 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a briefing past 11 am on Tuesday. Its gustiness is now up to 105 km/h from the previous 90 km/h.
PAGASA expects Ofel to “steadily intensify in the next three days.” It may become a severe tropical storm on Tuesday and a typhoon on Wednesday evening, November 13, or early Thursday morning, November 14, then reach its peak intensity before hitting land.
Ofel was last spotted 950 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon at 10 am, remaining far from land and not yet directly affecting the country.
The tropical storm accelerated, moving northwest at 35 km/h from 25 km/h.
At its current pace, Ofel could make landfall in Northern Luzon or Central Luzon on Thursday afternoon or evening, but PAGASA said the tropical cyclone’s track “may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.”
“Although it is too early to exactly determine the specific areas to be affected by certain hazards, areas in Northern Luzon are at risk of heavy rainfall, severe wind, and, possibly, storm surge inundation from Ofel which may cause considerable impacts,” the weather bureau reiterated.
“Moreover, the eastern portions of Central and Southern Luzon may also be affected, especially if the tropical cyclone further expands in size or follows a more southerly path (but within the forecast confidence cone).”
Signal No. 1 might be raised for parts of Cagayan Valley late Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning, in anticipation of strong winds from Ofel. This would give lead time of 36 hours for preparations.
The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Ofel is Signal No. 4.
PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the tropical storm will bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Wednesday, November 13
- Catanduanes
Thursday, November 14
- Batanes, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, northern part of Camarines Sur, northern part of Catanduanes
Friday, November 15
- Isabela, northern part of Aurora
Starting Thursday, Cagayan and Isabela could have heavy to intense rain from Ofel, while Apayao, Kalinga, and Mountain Province may see moderate to heavy rain. Floods and landslides are likely.
More areas are expected to be added to the rainfall outlook as the tropical cyclone approaches the country.
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Meanwhile, Nika was located 225 kilometers west northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte, or 315 kilometers west of Calayan, Cagayan, as of 10 am on Tuesday.
The severe tropical storm slowed down ahead of its expected exit from PAR in the afternoon, moving northwest over the West Philippine Sea at only 10 km/h.
It still has maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
At its peak, Nika was a typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h. It was downgraded to a severe tropical storm after crossing Aurora, Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain Province, and Ilocos Sur on Monday, November 11. Its landfall was in Dilasag, Aurora, at 8:10 am on Monday.
There are no more areas experiencing heavy rain from Nika. But some areas remain under Signal No. 1 as of 11 am on Tuesday due to strong winds brought by the severe tropical storm:
- northern part of Ilocos Norte (Sarrat, Piddig, Bangui, Vintar, Burgos, Pagudpud, Bacarra, Adams, Pasuquin, Carasi, San Nicolas, Dumalneg, Laoag City)
- northern part of Apayao (Luna, Calanasan)
- northwestern part of Cagayan (Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Claveria)
- northwestern part of Babuyan Islands (Calayan Island, Dalupiri Island, Fuga Island)
The highest tropical cyclone wind signal raised due to Nika was Signal No. 4.
On Tuesday, the northeasterly windflow will also continue to bring strong to gale-force gusts to Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Isabela.
In addition, there is still a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges in Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur within 48 hours.
For sea conditions in the next 24 hours, PAGASA updated its outlook:
Up to very rough seas (travel is risky for all vessels)
- Seaboards of Ilocos Norte and northern Ilocos Sur – waves up to 4 meters high
Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)
- Seaboards of Batanes and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands – waves up to 3.5 meters high
- Remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region; seaboard of northern Isabela – waves up to 3 meters high
Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)
- Remaining western and eastern seaboards of Luzon; eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao – waves up to 2 meters high
Nika and Ofel are the Philippines’ 14th and 15th tropical cyclones for 2024. They are also the second and third tropical cyclones for November, coming after Typhoon Marce (Yinxing), which battered Northern Luzon as well.
PAGASA also continues to monitor Tropical Storm Man-yi outside PAR. It was located 2,680 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon as of 8 am on Tuesday, moving west at only 10 km/h and still far from PAR.
Man-yi has maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and gustiness of up to 105 km/h. – Rappler.com